COMPANIES | PAGE 4 THE BIG IDEA | PAGE 24 Joy engine behind Wingify’s global rise OPINION | PAGE 8 Startups ride surging demand for NarrowAI MUMBAI, MONDAY, DECEMBER 15, 2025 When Prada prices our heritage FOLLOW US ON TWITTER & FACEBOOK. APP AVAILABLE ON APP STORE & PLAYSTORE WWW.FINANCIALEXPRESS.COM READ TO LEAD VOL LXV NO. 295, 22 PAGES, `12 P U B L I S H E D F R O M : A H M E D A B A D , B E N G A L U R U , C H A N D I G A R H , C H E N N A I , H Y D E R A B A D , K O C H I , K O L K ATA , L U C K N O W, M U M B A I , N E W D E L H I , P U N E INDIA LISTS 300 ITEMS TO BOOST RUSSIATRADE INDIAAND RUSSIA, aiming for $100 billion bilateral trade by 2030, are working to balance exchanges.The Centre has identified around 300 products spanning engineering, pharmaceuticals, chemicals, and agriculture to help close the gap and meet the target. FE Bureau » INSIDE « BOGUSDEDUCTIONCLAIMS DRAWCBDTSCRUTINYPAGE 2 AFTER I-TRAIDS, SEBI FINES REFEX PROMOTER PAGE 6 MOTOBAHN PAGE 9 VIKRAM CHAUDHARY ANALYSES HARLEY’S SEARCH FOR MASS-MARKET HERO Maha faces fiscal strain, but stability intact: Fadnavis 5.8 10.6 9.1 12.2 Foreign holding Others 0.9 0.2 8.0 4.2 4.7 RUN-UP TO THE BUDGET 2026-27 them more comparable with the country’s larger state-run lenders. State Bank of India (SBI),thatisalreadyfaraheadof otherPSBs in terms of size and reach of operations after absorbingitsassociatebanks,is unlikely to be part of the new roundofconsolidation. Multiplemergercombinations are under examination, thoughnospecificbankshave beenidentifiedyet,thesources said.The Union Budget 202627 is expected to offer policy direction on the future course of PSB reforms,theysaid. Lessons from earlier consolidation exercises are shap- ing the current thinking.The previous mergers, particularlythose executed in 201920, were far from smooth, marked by IT integration challenges, branch overlaps and staff rationalisation issues.In several cases,banks with similar regional footprintsweremerged,resulting in duplicated branch networks and employee redeployment problems. Continued on Page 18 Majorcustoms rejig on the anvil MUKESH JAGOTA & PRASANTA SAHU New Delhi, December 14 THE GOVERNMENT MAY undertake a major exercise to reduce the basic customs duty or import tariff on a large number of goods,especially critical raw materials and intermediate goods, in the Budget for FY27. This will be a fully autonomous initiative to lower the tariff barriers for the benefit of domestic value creation in assorted supply chains, despite the backdrop of Trump tariffs and a flurry of free trade agreements (FTAs) being negotiated. “A sharper focus on correcting tariff structures will help encourage local valueaddition in both manufacturing and services with manufacturing linkages, attract fresh investments, and cushion the impact of a swelling import bill,” said a source. In parallel, the customs procedures would be eased further,with greaterdigitisation, faceless processing and integration of operational parameters of large ports. Continued on Page 18 ON A SLOW DOWNWARD TRAJECTORY India’s changing import tariffs (%) Total Agri Non Agri Weighted average Simple average 56.4 1990 80.9 2001 31.8 26.5 2006 14.5 11.5 2016 13.4 10.2 2023 17.0 2024 16.2 13.5 13 34.4 9.3 7.9 32.7 7.5 5.5 39.0 12.0 36.8 12 With sharp user momentum, wooing advertisers will be a litmus test for Snapchat’s strategy 65.0 9.0 64.3 9.2 Emergency workers transport a person on a stretcher after a shooting at Bondi Beach in Sydney on Sunday. Two gunmen shot dead at least 12 people during a Jewish holiday celebration. One gunman was fatally shot by police, and the second was arrested. FULL REPORT PAGE 18 FE S P E C I A L The conversion challenge 34.8 ● 12 KILLED IN SYDNEYBONDI BEACH MASSACRE Banks step up CD sales amid tight liquidity ■ BRANDWAGON 44.4 Source: GTRI analysis based on WITS and World Tariff Profiles data CHIEF MINISTER DEVENDRA Fadnavis on Sunday acknowledged that Maharashtra’s treasury is under financial pressure but maintained the state continues to meet all key parameters of a strong and stable economy. Responding to legislators’ concerns on the Winter Session’s final day, Fadnavis firmly rejected fiscal mismanagement ■ PAGE 2 allegations. BANKS ARE raising short-term funds via certificates of deposit (CDs) amid rising credit demand and weak deposit growth. With persistent rate pressure despite a recent 25-bps policy cut, CD rates have surged as banks rely on them to bridge funding gaps, writes Christina Titus.■ PAGE 6 P9 createdanenvironmentforthe nextlevelofgrowth– corporateswithstrongbalance sheets,bankswithrobust creditgrowth,andan economypoisedfor sustainedmomentum. (Q1FY27),typicallya quieter quarterthatwill reveal whetherconsumption demand sustains beyond seasonal factors like marriages, festivals,andyear-end activity. Personally,I believe itwill be sustained,though momentum Do you think the GST mayvaryacross sectors.The effect is just a one- or auto industryhas performed two-quarter phenomenon, verywell in the last two orwillitlastlonger? quarters,butwewould like to Right now,we are clearly see seculardemand across witnessing growth.But the real industries ratherthan just a visibilitywill come in Q1 of the fewsectors driving growth. next financialyear Encouragingly,retail segments whetherit’s personal loans, WITH `55LCR DEPOSITSAND home loans,or auto loanswe CREDIT-DEPOSITRATIO OF arewitnessing 71-72%, SBI CAN SUPPORT healthygrowth. & 0.2 0.2 4.8 P&SB 93.9 Government stake UCO 91.0 THEGOVERNMENTISconsidering a two-pronged strategy to further consolidate public sectorbanks(PSBs)—merging smaller lenders to create scale andgraduallydilutingitsownership closerto 51% to enable thebankstoraisegrowthcapitalindependently. Accordingtosourcesfamiliarwiththediscussionsonthe matter,this mix of consolidation and calibrated dilution of government'sstakeisessential tobuildbankscapableoffundingtheexpandingcreditneeds of a fast-growing economy. In the next consolidation cycle,thefocusisexpectedtobe on the five smallest PSBs by assetsize,whichmaybemerged with mid-sized banks to make PSB shareholding (% of total equity) BoM 73.6 PRASANTA SAHU New Delhi, December 14 In the past 12-15 months,a host offiscalandregulatorymeasures havebeentakentogiveaboostto the economy.In this exclusive interview, State Bank of India (SBI) Chairman CS Setty tells Mahesh Nayak and Joydeep Ghosh theyledtoaflywheeleffect on credit growth. Setty believesFY26couldseeonemore rate cut.Excerpts: CONSOLIDATION PUSH IOB 94.6 PAGE 2 dilution of govt’s stake to 51% on the table Central Bank 89.3 ECONOMY ● FDI hike,phased Bank of 73.4 India Indian Bank 73.8 FARMERS’ PRODUCER organisations (FPOs) are increasingly using NCDEX to sell their produce, enhancing members’ price realisation through hedging. FromApril–Nov 2025-26, they traded over `444 crore ofvarious agricultural commodities, writes Sandip Das. ‘Consumption demand likely to be sustained’ Budget may unveil next round ofPSB reforms Canara 62.9 Bank Union Bank 74.8 NCDEX TRADING HITS `444 CRORE THROUGH FPOs BoB 64.0 PAGE 11 PNB 70.1 ECONOMY ● CS SETTY, CHAIRMAN, SBI MERGERSAMONG 5 SMALLESTPSBs UNDERCONSIDERATION SBI 55.5 IN THE NEWS Howhavethestrongfiscaland regulatory measures to push growth played out for the bankingsector,especiallySBI? Theycreatedaflywheeleffect oncreditgrowth,withthe outlookupgradedto12-14% from11-12%,drivenby resilientdomesticdemand. Risingconsumption encouragedcorporatesto utiliseworkingcapital andevenconsider capitalexpenditure, whilebanksfinetunedunderwriting standardsand maintainedasset qualitythrough digitalisationand availabilityofdata. Together,thesefactors »INSIDE« ❝ GROWTH EASILY.WEARE RAISING `10-12K CRORE TO BOOSTCAPITAL Is the rate cut cycle over,or do youexpectmore cutsahead? FY26 could still see one more rate cut. The thinking is that the terminal rate is around 5%, so there could be a single cut to align with that. Even today, at 5.25%, the repo rate is quite reasonable given the robust growth we are seeing. YONOISATION OF THE BANK IS THE NEXT GOAL PAGE 6 FMCG growth slips in Nov,but rural gallops VIVEAT SUSAN PINTO Mumbai, December 14 INDIA'S FAST-MOVING CONSUMER goods (FMCG) market has slipped in November due to price cuts triggered by the GST rate changes. All-India value growth stood at 4.4% for November 2025, below October's 6.8%, data shared by retail intelligence platform Bizom shows. Bizom does not provide volume growth figures. It tracks value growth across FMCG categories. Rural value growth,accordingtoBizom,wasaheadofoverall FMCG growth at 5.7% for November.But the gap between urban and rural value growth is onceagainwidening,raisingconcerns about a stable recovery in urbanareas.Urbanvaluegrowth stood at 2.5% for November, after reporting a sharp rebound of 6.3% in October.Last month, ruralvaluegrowthwas7.1%. “The post-Diwali period in November does tend to show someweaknessindemand.But thisyearthevaluegrowthnumbersinNovemberaredepressed because the GST-induced lower-priced products have landed in stores," Harshit Bora, Fintechs eye big gains in cross-border payments SOFT DEMAND Value growth (in %) All-India Urban Rural 12 10 6.2 8 5.7 6 4.6 4 4.4 2 0 3.6 June 2025 Source: Bizom 2.5 Nov 2025 analytics head,Bizom,said. Bora said that the domestic FMCG market, especially in urban areas,may take a month tofullystabilisebeforeshowing a consistent performance in termsofgrowthrates.Thispoint has been made by most other FMCG executives who point thattherecoveryinurbanareas will be gradual. Continued on Page 18 FINTECH FIRMS ARE preparing for a major expansion in cross-border payments after RBI began issuing licences under its new Payment Aggregator–Cross Border (PA-CB) framework. It has replaced the earlier OPGSP (online payment gateway service providers) structure and gives nonbank payment firms direct regulatory approval to handle international collections PAGE 4 and payouts. Amazon bets on short-term lending for q-comm biz AMAZON INDIA IS betting on a short-term lending model to fuel the growth of its quick-commerce brand, Amazon Now, without burning cash like many of its competitors in the segment, multiple executives aware of Amazon’s plans told FE. The firm’s focus is to grow its quick commerce channels of the Amazon Now brand via partnerships. PAGE 4 Jury is still out on who ultimately leads theAI era Fromcatch-uptocontender:HowGeminiischallengingChatGPT SUDHIR CHOWDHARY New Delhi, December 14 FORTHE FIRSTtimesincegenerative AI entered the mainstream, the race is no longer a one-horse sprint. Google’s Gemini has caught up with OpenAI’sChatGPTondistribution,usage,andcapability.Even as the gap narrows, however, the jury is still out on who ultimately leads theAI era. ChatGPT had what every category-defining product dreams of: first-mover advantage, explosive adoption, and near-total mindshare.It didn’t just launch early; it became synonymouswithAI itself.But with Gemini 3 and a rapidly expanding user base, Google has shifted the narrative from playing catch-up to posing a genuine challenge. Powered by models such as Gemini2.5Flash(includingthe Nano Banana image variant) and Pro, that momentum is being fuelled by deep integration across the Google ecosystem – Search, Gmail, and productivity suites – enabling smootherworkflows,real-time information access, and stronger contextual relevance. Gemini’s monthly active users increased by more than 30% between August and November this year, reaching 346 million, according to data from research firm Sensor Tower.Itnowholdsover50%of India’sdownloadmarketshare. On its third-quarter earnings call, Google placed Gemini’s GROWTH MATRIX Global monthly active users (in million) 1,000 ChatGPT 810 Google Gemini 800 346 600 212 Microsoft 365 Copilot 400 Perplexity 200 45 0 34 Grok Jan 2025 Source: Sensor Tower monthly active users significantlyhigher,at 650 million. ChatGPT continues to lead in absolute numbers,with 810 Nov 2025 Claude 11 million total monthly active users, but its growth over the sameperiodwasjust5%.Gemini’s desktop visits doubled during this time, while ChatGPT’s rose by only 1%.Weekly active users grew 52% for Gemini and 18% for ChatGPT from the beginning of August, the SensorTowerreport found. Features such as the viral imagegeneratorNanoBanana, alongwith the launch of Gemini 3, have accelerated adoption.At the beginning of 2025, Gemini had fewer than 100 million weekly active users, comparedtowellover200millionforChatGPT,agapthathas since narrowed sharply. “Nano Banana enhances Gemini’smulti-modalcapabilities through conversational image generation and editing, delivering precise, contextaware visuals that elevate creative and professional workflows,” said Prabhu Ram, vice president, Industry Research GroupatCyberMediaResearch (CMR).“This positions Gemini strongly for enterprise and research-oriented users who prioritise accuracy and efficiency over ChatGPT’s broader creative flair.” ChatGPT’s dominance is alsobeingtestedbychallengers such as Perplexity and Anthropic’s Claude. Both recorded triple-digit growth in 2025,with Perplexity expanding 370% year-on-year and Claude growing 190%. Analysts say models are improving so rapidly that being first may no longer matter as much as being best right now.As newer systems better understand intent and require fewer prompts,usersareincreasingly willing to switch platforms. Continued on Page 11